Sunday, August 19, 2007

The View from Mt Tabor is Fantastic

(thanks to my bro and a loyal reader for pointing this out)



Well the US gov't, in cooperation with local authorities and private freeloaders, are conducting a nuclear bomb test scenario here in beautiful Portland, Oregon. Let's scare you a little with a local fallout map...



(map courtesy of the Oregon Truth Alliance)

..how's that? Are you scared yet? That's right, Powell's Books is safe, but no more Blazer games. This exercise will be taking place over the next week.

The US Gov't has a new money spending campaign called Operation Noble Resolve. The Department of Fatherland Security picked little old Portland, with a low population density, no oil refineries or other energy centers, and a shipyard with a scarcity of military clients as their playground for a nuclear weapon.

I have no doubt that they are serious about this, but this scenario is for a 10 kiloton ground burst likely to be detonated by Al-Qaeda operatives that are, by some magical coincidence, more than 10 years ahead of the entire industrial capability of Iran in creating a nuclear weapon.

I will grant you that our little berg is not immune from a nuclear strike, but I suspect Russia, China, and North Korea (and possibly a pissed off Israel if we don't indulge their expansionism) long before anyone else in this category. Given the long history of nuclear energy in Russia and China, this scenario falls far short of their capabilities.

In addition, for the price of a community college student's report, I've already beaten our government to the punch. Over 20 years ago, I did a report in college on the effects of a one megaton (about 100 times bigger than Noble Baloney) blast on the Portland area. In my report, the blast was an air burst over the Burnside Bridge. The blast zone was orders of magnitude larger than that shown above and the death toll would have been in the hundreds of thousands over the course of time. I just wish I could find the dang thing in my boxes of schoolwork. If I do, I will type and post it (it was hand written).

I am preparing a post on how logic and risk intertwine to confuse the heck out of us, but suffice it to say that I don't appreciate my beautiful city and state being used for an implausible scenario. My take (and my contributing reader as well) is that any type of radioactive bomb from the so-called Al Qaeda would take the form of a dirty bomb, whose output would be more psychological than physical. Their element of surprise is gone and the days of fooling airplane passengers (if that is what happened) are long gone.

At any rate, if you see any would-be crusaders in P-town running around for no good reason talking about radiation over then next week, point your fingers and laugh at them and ask them to quit wasting our money on unlikely threats.

20 comments:

The Moody Minstrel said...

Actually, a 10-kiloton burst sounds most plausible for a number of reasons. If we were to wind up in a nuclear war with, say, Russia, most of their strategic ballistic missiles actually mount multiple warheads (MIRVs) whose warhead strength is usually around 10-20 kilotons. Those are the kind most likely to be deployed against a soft target such as Portland...though they would undoubtedly be air-burst, as you said.

The really big, ground-burst warheads would be reserved for use against strategic targets such as missile silos and hardened military targets.

As for Al-Qaeda, it has long been feared that they've obtained nuclear capability thanks to former Soviet republics that are more or less in the Muslim camp. In other words, no one suspects them of having developed the warheads themselves. Rather, it's more plausible that they've gotten a hold of a warhead or two thanks to sympathizers in Chechnya or insiders in Kazakhstan.

But that's just a theory. Chechnya's islamists have never used a nuclear weapon against Russia, and that's something I would expect long before an Al-Qaeda nuclear attack on the U.S.. However, if Al-Qaeda DID carry out such an attack, it would make more sense for them to attack a city that wasn't so obvious. It would have far more shock value to the average American since it would show that your average John Doe in Sticksville isn't safe.

But that's just speculation.

Pandabonium said...

Will SPF 30 sunscreen help?

Like most threats, it exists either in the imaginations of those who want everyone to be in fear all the time, or is real and under their own control.

Interestingly, the U.S. Joint Forces Command's link (in the article) about this exercise is not working, but it is still cached on Google (oops).

They do like to play "games". Your tax dollars at work.

ladybug said...

This sounds completely ludicrous - much more likely targets would be Seattle or San Diego. Perhaps the Bay Area too, I mean much more population density, Silicon Valley, a military base or two....

Anyhoo, the pic reminds me of the '70's movie version of Ursula LeGuin's book "The Lathe of Heaven" - talk about post-apocalyptic!

Don Snabulus said...

LB,

It is a bit like the Lathe of Heaven, isn't it. Dream it away, George!

PB,

Interesting. I saw some study recently that concluded that more information is leaked from military websites by far than all the military bloggers put together. Of course, the military is more interested in silencing their grunts than running efficiently.

MM,

I didn't think about the MIRVs, good point. I still don't think the Al Qaeda missile idea is that plausible because the value of the missiles would bring much more wampum if a predominantly Muslim country such as, say Saudi Arabia, wanted the bomb. Imagine how that would line the pockets of the Uzbeks, etc. I find this much more likely than Al Qaeda getting it.

If the gov't 9/11 story is true, the folks that comprise Al Qaeda like the big show and we aren't it.

But as you say, it is all speculation. It also bears little resemblance to the reasons for this little exercise involving Portland which is probably more focused on the what than the where.

Swinebread said...

If an atomic bomb goes off here it's all over for us what's the point in doing tests? Spend the money on health care or better yet, on tracking nuclear material.

Portland has some minor chance of being a target as it is a port on the west coast but it would be hard to get a ship all the way into Port. Seattle, LA, and San Fran are closer to the ocean and get more traffic.

Dean Wormer said...

They will hit Portland. They hate us for our lattes. And our freedom.

Make no mistake about it?

Oh, and Swine-

If an atomic bomb goes off here it's all over for us what's the point in doing tests?

Think of all the mutant rabbits and plants that will be joining us. I thought you welcomed the post-apocalyse.

Don Snabulus said...

I've played Bunnies & Burrows. I know what those b*stards are capable of.

Maximilian Strange said...

I seem to remember that on 911 the US was conducting an exercise in New York at the time that the planes hit the buildings. Could this be a subtle method of preparing the emergency response because they have intelligence that suggests such an attack is all ready in the works?

Just a thought.

Maximilian Strange said...

WND News Article on Portland Dril

It seems that the conspiracy theorists are several steps ahead of me. George Soros and compatriates are all ready deascribing the drill as a False Flag Scenario.

Pandabonium said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Pandabonium said...

let me try this comment again without the mistreaks.

Ladybug - I agree that an enemy of the US government would hit silicon valley or San Diego as you say, but what if the government itself wanted to create the impression that we were being attacked by oh, I don't know, Iran, Albert Kayduh, or North Korea, so that they would have an excuse to attack them and could finish off what's left of the Constitution to assume total control? Then a little nuke in a little city would be just the ticket. Do they seriously think Putin is going to attack?

The scenarios for this exercise include a nuke, but also include other natural disasters like tidal waves.

The operation they ran in N.C. in April was based on the premise that a group of "ter'sts" smuggled in a suitcase bomb.

The way Cheney's pace maker skips a beat and makes his eyes flash when ever he talks about a terrorist attack on the "homeland", I wouldn't put it past them. In fact I think they already did it once.

Maximillian Strange - There were several exercises going on during the attack on 9/11, so many that when the FAA asked for fighter intercepts, military personnel were asking, "is this real or is this part of the exercise?"

Not saying this exercise will go live. Just that such activity bears watching.

I'm fine with people calling me a "conspiracy theorist" as long as they let me call them "coincidence theorists".

The Moody Minstrel said...

I knew there was a reason I wound up staying in Japan.

Isis said...

Moody said, "I knew there was a reason I wound up staying in Japan."

That would be the "lighting doesn't strike twice in the same place" hypothesis?

Let's see, Hiroshima...Nagasa...oops!

Anonymous said...

What's Really Happening at Noble Resolve

For a view of what Noble Resolve 07-2 is really about, check out this live blog by Robert Pursell from U.S . Joint Forces Command Public Affairs. He's posting directly the experiment floor.

http://www.jfcom.mil/newslink/storyarchive/2007/pa082207.htm

SPC. Andrew Orillion
USJFCOM Public Affairs Office

Maximilian Strange said...

Actually, I did go to the official site of the USJFCOM web site.

In reality, I am soemwhat comforted that the US is taking the threat of portable nuclear wepoans seriously. It admits the real possibility that stolen nuclear weapons from the former Soviet Republic exist.

I first heard about these devices back when Oliver North was on the radio.

Apparently, some ten of these devices were rumored to be smuggled in to the US which was reported to Oliver North by an ex Soviet spy.

I have yet to see a report either confirm or deny that information.

Perhaps, SPC Orrilion, you could determine if that is fact or fiction and see that it gets taken care of.

Don Snabulus said...

Click here for SPC. Andrew Orillion's link (which somehow got bloggered by my style sheets)

I thank him for giving us the opportunity to see another side of the coin. It sure as heck beats getting accused of being Osama's best pal or being called a shill of Stalinism. As people know, I don't stand for it.

I am still preparing a detailed explanation that will, among other things, address why I think this exercise is flawed. That doesn't mean that good can't come from it and it doesn't negate the opinions of those involved.

In the mean time, I allow myself to get a little attitude about a federal government that seems to be having Constitutional Amnesia right now.

Don Snabulus said...

Oh, and one more thing US Gov't?

Can you puh-lease cut the phony self-congratulatory operation names like Noble Resolve and Bold Quest. It sounds like you are covering up for some inadequacy in the same way that porno actors do. Just a suggestion.

The Moody Minstrel said...

Funny...that link provided by SPC. Andrew Orillion doesn't seem to work. I get an error message saying "server not found".

I might add that, for several hours this site and mine became inaccessible. (Google kept giving me a "server error" window.)

Hmm...

Sharki said...

don snablus,

Thanks for the support Don Snablus, as for the names the armed forces does so many exercises that we can't simply call them the Spring exercise or the Portland exercise.

In 1st Armored Division, whom I was stationed with previoulsy, every operation began with the word iron; Iron Stirke, Iron Talon, Iron Unity and my favorite, Iron Blue Skies.

Pandabonium said...

This post leapt to mind when I learned of the advanced cruise missiles loaded on a B-52, which were "accidentally" carrying nuclear warheads.

Much speculation that they were being purloined for use in a false flag operation in the Middle East involving Iran.

Since this coincided closely with a new Osama bin Forgotten video and statements from CIA Director Michael Hayden who warned that al-Qaeda was plotting new attacks on the US, my own speculations are even more grim.

In a speech the other day in NY, Hayden told the Council on Foreign Relations, "Our analysts assess with high confidence that al-Qaeda's central leadership is planning high impact plots against the American homeland," he said.

"Al-Qaeda is focusing on targets that would produce mass casualties, dramatic destruction and significant economic aftershocks."

Interestingly, the warhead carried by the cruise missiles are the W-80, the yield of which can be adjusted to anywhere between 5 and 150 kilotons, depending on the target.

Who poses the greatest threat to our freedom - Vladamir Putin, or Dick Cheney?

Conspiracy theory? No. While I think it is self evident now that there are in fact groups of people in the highest levels of the US government who are conspiring against the Constitution, I'm not offering anything on this story as a "theory", merely food for thought and grounds for further research.